The 2010 Landscape Part 1: The PowerfulS
September 13, 2008 Leave a comment
The Philippine political landscape is full of uncertainty today, which makes it the particular atmosphere to experiment and speculate the possibilities. If there is one thing for sure at this point in Philippine politics, the upcoming elections less than 20 months from now is gonna be crazy in many aspects — politically, strategically, and financially.
To give the prediction a little context, let us look at the full picture. President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, our President for 7 years (and 9 years by the time she steps down), is to come to the end of her full presidential term. And with this length in office, has come close to so many political enemies to stay in power. Amid several attempts to oust her from the palace, none of these attempts were successful, thanks to the loyalty of her fleet of Generals and some political allies.
But all things, great or sucky, come to an end. And for Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo to spend the next years of her post-presidency out of jail, she has to work hard to have an ally elected. This is of course if the “RUMORED” ‘no-election’ plot is unsuccessful. The 2010 elections for president is PGMA’s most important election, more important than her 2004 bid. Her family’s future is at stake.
The 2010 presidential elections shall be a very relevant election. For it shall define the future of the country. PGMA’s economic policies are set to bear fruit beyond her presidency, and if such is to be awaited, then the next President will have a very pivotal role to our development.
THE POWERFULs, THE POWER PLAYERS, and THE POWER BROKERS
Of course, like any political zarzuella this nation has witnessed over the long years of its young democracy, the scene is filled with the powerfuls – the lead actors and actresses who shall determine the plot of the story, or enunciate the conflict; the power players are the supporting actors who shall determine the flow of the story, and the power brokers -those who stay behind the curtain seeing if the play’s gaining profit.
The roles of every character vary, but are equally important.
Among all the key political figures to stir the 2010 political atmosphere is no other than the sitting president herself. She is a few months away from relinquishing power (by then) and shall be on her way from being off her mantle of immunity from suit. And after the 9 years she would have served, earning many friends and much enemies along the way, cases against her of various grounds (from corruption to corruption) are to imminently fill the post-GMA political garden. This is her political litter when she leaves Malacanang.
But unlike any other character in this game, PGMA has an extreme protagonistic power – among all of the players, she is the only one fully in charge of her fate. She completely controls her fate. And with 20 more months in her favor, she has much time to determine her future.
While current polls reflect that none of her allies are probably winning the presidency, this is her biggest challenge. But with this challenge comes another upper hand. She has great command in the provinces. And she can use this to ensure the victory of her proclaimed successor.
Putting the NO-EL incident in the picture, this is another strong tool for her. But if this does not work in the next 60 days, then she should abandon this and start campaigning for her successor to make sure they do not end up the way Team Unity did.
Joseph Estrada is another lead in this skirmish. In all fairness, even though slow, he has united some parcels (and strong parcels, at that) of the opposition. Unfortunately, he is barred from running. But his charisma towards the urban poor will be the conflict that PGMA has to contend with. After all, for sometime, ERAP is the only majority elected president.
But Estrada’s choice of who to endorse will never be easy. Among the ranks of the opposition, at least four have plans of bagging the palace, and choosing the right candidate and appeasing others will surely be the job ERAP will hate. Two thousand four surely resonates this experience.
In a little reverse, the opposition fielded Fernando Poe, Jr. and Panfilo Lacson. Raul Roco was a quasi-opposition candidate, and Eddie Villanueva was a wild card. All went against PGMA, who was the only administration candidate then. ERAP endorsed FPJ, leaving Ping in dismay leading to the division of the opposition vote, particularly that of Metro Manila, the opposition’s strongest base.
Seeing this, ERAP plays an ever important role. He will have to raise the hand of who he thinks can be the opposition’s best chance of faring against the administration’s vast machinery. But if ERAP chooses the right one, it will be near to impossible for PGMA’s allies to win in the end.
If ERAP wants to see his vision of opposition victory in 2010, he must begin preparing the other opposition presidentiables to prepare to concede behind one strong candidate. This will be his difficult job.
President Aquino’s magic is to be tested come 2010, if it works beside a filmstar. As a former President who formerly opposed ERAP, formerly supported PGMA, and currently does otherwise can be a political influence barred at a wild card level.
Corazon Aquino is the symbol (though some and may disagree) of morality and is the conscience of the nation. Now in the arsenal of the opposition, Cory is to help bring the opposition to new heights. Why? Being opposition is not a new thing to her.
For much of her political career, she stood as an oppositionist, but one who faces adversity with prayer and a knock to the conscience. She shall become the opposition’s moral balancer, and shall become a substantial asset to the opposition’s campaign in administration strongholds.
But with Cory’s magic comes a setback as well. For the educated elite (at least a chunk), she is a political turncoat, fighting against those who purportedly go against her interest. This is yet to be proven. But if true, this shall be a setback the opposition will have to take as seriously as ERAP’s purported corruption.
Cory shall pull the Catholic vote for the opposition, a voting bloc that usually does not vote as a bloc. And to win an election as crucial as 2010, they will have to consolidate this force.
His presidential pick may have strong following among the ranks of the military. This makes him an important endorser. Given FVR’s endorsement record, he has never endorsed a candidate from the opposition.
FVR’s clout and circle is a very exclusive one, and very few in number. But for a president to succeed the PGMA way, FVR is crucial.
We must realize the fact that PGMA owes a great deal of her political survival to the military bloc. In any successful ouster, military support is very important. And the military has supported PGMA so well that not even internal force from within the military was strong enough to pull her out of the palace. And much of this, he owes to FVR.
If FVR continues to be in the administration side, then he and PGMA may help continue administration reign in the palace. He will be needed for so many reasons. LAKAS may be dead meat politically but its influence remains. And with FVR still in the scene, LAKAS CMD will not be erased easily.
On the next part of the blog:
With the powerfuls and their roles refreshed and rekindled, and as the nation gears up for the second presidential election of the decade, who are the power players? How do they affect the nation, their allies, opponents, supporters, enemies, and themselves? Stay tuned. 🙂
(To Be Continued…)